• For the first time in human history, as far as is known, human beings will collectively be having fewer babies than it takes to replace themselves, starting not in 2050 or so as had been commonly assumed, but in the next decade.
• The Chinese census suggests that there are 118.6 boys being born for every 100 girls, worsening from 116.9 in 2000.
• India has a gender ratio at birth of around 110 boys for every 100 girls with large regional variations. Compare this with the “natural” ratio of 105 boys per 100 girls (notice that even the natural ratio is not exactly 1:1).
• After making the adjustment for the gender imbalance, China’s Effective Fertility Rate (EFR) is around 1.5 while that for India is around 2.45 – both below what is widely discussed. In other words, the Chinese are already far from replacing themselves while the Indians are only slightly above the replacement rate.
• The human race will no longer be replacing itself by the early 2020s. Population growth will continue for a few more decades because of momentum from the age structure and people living longer but, reproductively speaking, our species will no longer be growing. This will be one of the most important turning points in history.
• Population decline, along with the implosion of moral standards, are two of the main determinant factors in the collapse of not only empires but entire civilizations. World effective fertility rate collapses – will drop below replacement rate in 10 years
(May 25, 2011) A Blog For Dallas Area Catholics, veneremurcernui.wordpress.com.